Congressman Don Bacon
While Democrats netted 41 seats to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Don Bacon was of the few Republican Incumbents in a competitive seat to win reelection in the 2018 midterms.
From the start, we knew this race would be a dog fight – an incumbent Republican against a female outsider in a very tumultuous election cycle. The data gave guidance as to which demographics we’d need to focus on (men 55+, soft Republicans and voters outside Omaha) and which messages were worthwhile (e.g., tax reform, the economy, nat security/military).
In such a tight race, how to allocate resources makes all the difference. Our data was able to guide the Bacon campaign to make sure all $700k of their TV budget was allocated to ensure the best rate of return aka the most votes.
Our final survey showed Bacon at 50, with 4% undecided. Bacon went on to win 51-49.